Sooo, how 'bout those financial markets, eh? I don't hold with any of that fancy market timing, but I'm feeling happy about all those stocks I sold to buy bonds earlier this month. Actually I am always bearish about the market in a way that's too thoroughgoing to be helpful, like when I was railing against the internet stock bubble back in the day. I was "right" in the sense that it was unsustainable, but if I were actually managing money at the time I would have been creamed shorting everything in the world about a year and a half early. When my banker said in November that the risk of a total meltdown and recession were already priced into financial stocks I laughed, hollowly. Could the US really head into a protracted recession? I say yes, but I always say that.
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January 23, 2008
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Reckon we didn't clap hard enough.
Posted by: The Modesto Kid | January 23, 2008 at 01:53 AM
You could be a famous investment advisor though if you build your profile at the right time. There was an Australian talking head (sorry, no names, I entirely forget where I read this) who got an immense amount of press love for predicting the 1987 crash. It turned out he'd been predicting it every week for a year, but it worked for him in the end!
Posted by: Mary | January 23, 2008 at 04:43 AM
Good time to be getting paid in Singapore dollars.
Posted by: David Moles | January 23, 2008 at 05:06 AM
You can pat yourself on the back if you get back into the stock market in time to take advantage of the temporary drop in prices.
Knowing when to get out is only half the trick, and odds are you won't be able to pull off both halves.
Protracted recession? It's possible, but the Fed has a lot of rate cutting it can do before it gets to that point.
Posted by: Brock | January 23, 2008 at 05:22 AM
A stopped clock is right twice a day. We're approaching that time again ...
Posted by: nnyhav | January 23, 2008 at 06:56 AM
Mary, you might be thinking of Peter Brain and the 1997 Asian crisis.
Mind you, I and lots of others predicted this kind of meltdown five years ago. Again, the problem is timing.
Posted by: John Quiggin | January 24, 2008 at 09:04 AM
I knew the title of your post would draw the Australians, wittingly or no.
Posted by: Jonathan | January 24, 2008 at 03:20 PM
When's the next flight to Muswellbrook?
Posted by: My Alter Ego | January 25, 2008 at 12:06 AM